Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression
The price of #Bitcoin can best be described by logarithmic regression in my opinion. We talk about the upside potential and the downside risk quite frequently, and I think these logarithmic regression bands help us to visualize exactly what that looks like. With the logarithmic regression bands we can identify at various stages whether the bias is upwards or downwards, or if there is no bias at all.
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Disclaimer: The information presented within this video is NOT financial advice.
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Hey Ben, ?
Maybe something to think about is that because bitcoin didn’t go up as many times as it had in the previous cycles is why we may go below the last cycles previous all time high in our current 85% correction. ?♂️ what are your thoughts ?
Hey Ben
Thanks a lot for your frequent high class content you’re putting out! Have you ever taken notice or considered the 210/60 days cycle BTC is moving in for years?
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Hey Benjamin. Thanks for all the super good content. Had a question for you: Bitcoin has always been in a macro uptrend. But what if it breaks the 200WMA and then the 300WMA and goes in a macro downtrend? Could this be possible given the marco economic conditions and that it is closely related to the stock market. If stock market corrects 50%, then isn’t there a good chance we see BTC in a macro downtrend?
This show is literally The Lighthouse in the storm.
Great chart. I loved it.
ben’s speculations are all reasonable, but he’s ignoring the other possibility of diminishing volatility, which is that the bottom will also be shallower. If we have diminishing returns on the upside, it’s reasonable to assess that might also see diminishing returns on the downside. I think this is the core problem with so much of analysis based on 2 data points (2013 and 2017).
again this is not to say he’s analysis is wrong, but there is an emphasis for certain details and probabilities without the same consideration for other scenarios, imho.
It’s not reasonable.
One does not have to imply the other, at least in current macro conditions.
The idea that we cannot retrace back into a prior top comes from Elliott Wave theory, but that is only valid during a 5 wave cycle. What if the 5 wave completed at $68k? That’s my super cycle 5 wave count starting from 2008: the 5th wave ends at $68k. There’s no rule to say that a reset ABC corrective wave (after a 5 wave) cannot go below a prior wave from a prior cycle. I think we go below $21k because the last bull (eg. Saylor) hasn’t capitulated yet.
Saylor aint selling nothing no time soon. So you can forget about that.
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Ben, considering diminishing returns is it possible for Bitcoin to hit a million dollars?
“Our date with destiny” ? Your quotes are epic ?
Great content!!! My only observation is that the price never got into the higher level band (red), so then…. There is an argument to be made that It will not get to the lower level band that much (green).
And I am wondering if maybe this is in the interest of big whales and institutions, to promote Bitcoin across the globe, and in emerging economies…. by slightly diminishing it’s volatitlity.
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Good theory.. If no recession effect. Overall if more cash in, harder to move price either direction = lower volatility..
@Andrzej Udalski I’m only speaking about probabilities
@Troy Bossard Yeah I totally get you but I am seeing the relationship between red and green. And if you go back to 2012 the same thing happened. It didn’t break through the red and then it didn’t break that much through the green to the downside.
I don’t get this argument.
It may barely touch the red band and rip through the green band, if we get (more of) a nasty recession, which btc never experienced.
Nobody knows s#it, dont be deterministic cause of some meme lines.
Appreciate Ben for your work! ?
Thanks for jumping back into the Rektoverse everyone
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Weeeeee ???
You’re always the best out there. Thanks 🙂
We will see x3 max in next cycle peak,maybe even lower high, macroeconomic conditions are different than in last 10yrs. Now everybody know this pattern, sounds too easy to repeat again.
Shouldn’t the log regression be revamped and remodeled with a fourth peak to the top regression band, resulting in even more specific data; or would you also need the data of the next bottom first?
Can you do a video of your estimation for bitcoin and alt coin prices within the next 5 to 10 years?
“How can we not expect it”? Corporate profit margins are at decades long highs, along with the share of national income going to capital. Most of “inflation” is margin expansion…increased profits. Higher interest rates are already baked into equity multiples. There’s a very real possibility there will be no recession, and that this is just a mostly ordinary correction. The way is clear to a risk asset rally…btc higher.
this video was very helpful!!
i know youre a bear but at least draw out the prev ath to next cycle bottom (at the rate that it diminishes, it would be right around where we are now. 410% to 150% to ~50% which is around 27k) , also top to top lengths at least draw it out to july 24′ ?, those are possibilities that should be visualized
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